Why do we always use the word “challenges” instead of “problems”? A challenge is something you have to deal with, in no real state of urgency. A problem is a great big brick wall that has to be climbed or demolished NOW. Whenever I hear, “This is one of the industry’s challenges”, then I know they have no intention of dealing with it.
This is not something you can do in TV. In TV you have to deliver. The content is scheduled, the audience is waiting, it has to be ready for transmission, and it has to be good. There are no challenges here – only problems.
It’s not that difficult to predict the mood of the audience in the next six months, but it is a problem when it comes to predicting mood a year ahead. Most programmes take a year to get on the air.
We have a looming economic depression ahead of us. We all know what happened to TV programming in previous depressions, and it’s fairly easy to predict that there will be a demand for more sentimental feelings, outlandish game and reality shows and, of course, fantasy. After all, the most successful reruns in the USA post 9/11 trauma, were “Touched by an Angel” and “Dr Quinn: Medicine Woman.”
Why? Because they are both about miracles, and in the 2002, the Americans were so traumatised the only thing that seemed viable was a miracle. They are about to go the same way again.
So how do we analyse the audience mood in a year’s time, and satisfy their emotional needs?
People are driven simultaneously by hope that nice things will happen and fear that bad things will come about. As a result, they watch TV to try and make sense of the world, and to glean from stories some strategies they can file away that may help them deal with fearful change in the future.
Pretty elementary media psychology stuff.
Given that the economy will be rock bottom towards the end of 2009, people won’t have access to the demand for instant gratification. If they want luxury goods, they have to save up for them. Everyone will know someone who is unemployed. The SUV has been exchanged for a Tazz. School fees will be in arrears. Credit card repayments are first call on the budget.
Then, people will argue, “The economy is shot. It’s not my fault. In fact I don’t even think its South Africa’s fault”. They will be looking for someone to blame. Stories they identify with, will be those that confirm their suspicions, such as good conspiracy stuff, and stories where the rich, evil guys get what’s coming to them.
Hypochondria will flourish. Talk shows like Noeleen will be in increasing demand, as long as she concentrates on the devastating effects on the body and psyche of not having enough money. The broadcasters will love these shows too: they’re cheap to make.
As for strategies that help you deal with change, the only change you can hope for is either some utopia you have always dreamed of, or the return of the good old days.
This means two types of programmes: fantasy (including game shows), preposterous reality stuff, and sentimental treatments that take us into an emotionally ideal existence. This lays the field wide open to our own “Touched by an Angel” or “Dr Quinn: Medicine woman”. Could they be, Gesoen deur Engela, and Gugu: Sangoma?
Nostalgia will thrive – it doesn’t matter which “good old days” as long as they were the prosperous ones. There will be a decline in home décor, unless it’s real budget stuff.
So how does this in with what is forecast round the world? A brief check of Europe, UK, US and Australia shows a plethora of top models, relationships game shows, but remember, these are only the preview releases for the 2009 first quarter. I can’t find anyone forecasting what is coming up after that, but with adspend down 10%, you can bet it will be cheap, low risk, and pandering to excessive hopes and fears.
(First appeared in The Media Feb 2009)
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